Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index

Country-Specific Geopolitical Risk

Dario Caldara and Matteo Iacoviello

The country-specific GPR index reflects automated text-search results of the electronic archives of three U.S newspapers: The New York Times, Chicago Tribune and The Washington Post. For each of the 39 countries, Caldara and Iacoviello calculate the country-specific index by counting the monthly share of all newspaper articles from 1900 to 2020 that both (1) meet the criterion for inclusion in the GPR index and (2) mention the name of the country or its major cities. Each index is expressed as a monthly share of newspaper articles. The resulting indices capture the U.S. perspective on risks posed by, or involving, the country in question. Visit our main GPR index page for additional details.

DATA The data are updated for each month around the 10th of the following month.

Cite as: Caldara, Dario and Matteo Iacoviello, “Measuring Geopolitical Risk,” working paper, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Board, December 2019.

Plots and narrative information for each individual country are available clicking the links below.

North America: USA, Canada, Mexico
South America: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru, Venezuela
Europe (North and East): Denmark, Finland, United Kingdom, Norway, Sweden, Russia, Ukraine
Europe (South and West): Belgium, Switzerland, Germany, France, The Netherlands, Italy, Spain, Portugal
Middle East and Africa: Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, South Africa
Asia: China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, The Philippines, Taiwan, Indonesia, India, Malaysia, Thailand
Oceania: Australia

GPR Country-Specific Indices

Note: Move the slider below the chart to zoom in on a specific date range. Select or deselect individual countries to compare their GPR indices.